Biden vs. Trump: a familiar matchup in an unprecedented election

拜登 vs. 特朗普：史无前例的大选中，一场熟悉的对决

Oldest-ever president and his only slightly younger predecessor, weighed down by indictments, march toward a rematch

历史上最年长的总统（拜登）和仅比他年轻一点的前任总统（特朗普）再度针锋相对，尽管特朗普还承受着法律指控的重压

With the last embers of the Republican primary extinguished after Super Tuesday, the country is lurching into a new phase in the 2024 presidential election: a one-on-one matchup between President Biden and former President Donald Trump that is unlike any other contest in modern history. ***

“超级星期二”之后，共和党初选中最有力的竞争者落败，美国步入了2024年总统大选的新阶段：总统拜登（Biden）和前总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）之间的一对一对决，这与现代史上任何其他竞选都不同。（译者注：Super Tuesday（超级星期二）一般是美国大选年的2月或3月的某个星期二，是美国总统选举初选阶段最重要的一天。美国多个州将在这一天同时举行总统大选党内初选，这一天的初选过后，美国两党总统提名人选会基本明朗。 这里 last embers 比喻竞选活动中某个候选人获胜希望的最后余火。）

The last Republican challenger, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, said Wednesday she was suspending her campaign after Trump trounced her in states across the country.

最后一位共和党候选竞争者、前南卡罗来纳州州长尼基·哈利（Nikki Haley）周三表示，特朗普在全国各州击败她之后，她将暂停竞选活动。

The former president is on track to clinch the GOP nomination as soon as next week, while Biden is sailing toward the Democratic nomination again.

这位前总统最快将于下周获得共和党提名，而拜登则将再次获得民主党提名。（译者注：GOP 是 Grand Old Party 的缩写，美国共和党的昵称。）

Never has America had to choose between two candidates so old, and never in modern times has the choice been between two so strongly disliked hopefuls who both are essentially running as incumbents, already having established White House track records. ***

美国此前从未出现过不得不在两位如此年长的候选人之中做出选择的情况，在现代历史上也从未出现过需要在两位如此不受欢迎的候选人之中做出选择的情况，而这两位候选人本质上都是以现任者身份参选，因为他们已经有白宫的工作履历。（译者注：hopefuls 常用来形容那些有望或期待成功的人，在政治语境中特指竞选者或候选人。）

Never has a campaign played out in split-screen fashion on the trail and in the courtroom, with a set of criminal cases that could land one of the candidates, Trump, in jail and facing adverse civil judgments that could cripple his family business.

从来没有一场竞选活动像现在这样，候选人在进行选举活动的同时，还在法庭上应对各种法律问题，一系列的刑事案件可能会让候选人之一的特朗普锒铛入狱，而他面临的不利民事判决可能会削弱他的家族企业。（译者注：split-screen 通常用于描述两个或更多事件同时发生，就像在电视屏幕上看到的那样，屏幕被分割成几部分，每部分都在播放不同的内容。）

Biden, meanwhile, faces skepticism about his age and fitness to continue serving and will need to overcome dismal approval ratings to win a second term.

与此同时，拜登面临着对其年龄和是否适合继续任职的质疑，他需要解决目前低迷的支持率的问题才能赢得连任。

Tentpole events are less sturdy: National party conventions have attracted less attention from voters and television networks, and it is unclear if there will be the typical cadence of three pre-election presidential debates and a vice-presidential exchange.

大选前的重要活动的影响力有所减弱：全国政党大会吸引的选民和电视网络的关注较少，而且目前还不清楚是否会按照惯例进行三次选前总统候选人辩论和一次副总统候选人交流。（译者注：Tentpole events 指的是具有重要意义或能够产生重大影响的事件，比如全国政党大会和总统候选人辩论。这些活动通常被视为竞选活动的主要支柱（tentpole），因为它们可以集中公众注意力，并有可能对选举结果产生显著影响。）

Should they occur, the debates will be scrutinized less for the agenda each candidate would bring to the White House than for whether verbal slips and tortured locution, already a feature of their public appearances, are indications of cognitive decline tied to their advanced ages.

如果举行辩论，人们关注的将不是每位候选人将为白宫带来什么样的议程，而是他们公开露面时常有的口误和蹩脚的措辞是否表明他们因年事已高而导致认知能力下降。

Beyond framing the election as a choice between competing visions for the country, both candidates will have unique challenges in persuading Americans that they are capable of doing the job.

除了将大选定位为“对国家未来不同愿景进行的选择”之外，在说服美国公众相信他们有能力胜任总统方面，两位候选人都将面临各自的挑战。（译者注：competing visions for the country 是指对国家未来发展的不同看法或设想，这些设想在某种程度上互相竞争。）

Biden will have to convince large shares of Americans that he has the mental acuity to handle a position considered the most difficult in the world, as nearly three-quarters of voters say he is too old to run again, Wall Street Journal polling finds.

《华尔街日报》的民调显示，近四分之三的选民认为拜登年事过高，不适合再次参选，因此拜登必须让大部分美国公众相信，他有足够的心智灵敏度来胜任这个被认为是世界上最难胜任的职位。

Trump will have to persuade the country that his stream of criminal charges and adverse civil judgments won’t follow him into the White House and hamper his effectiveness, as Journal polling shows that a conviction would hurt his political standing.

而特朗普必须说服美国民众，他的一系列刑事指控和不利的民事判决不会随他入主白宫，不会阻碍他行使总统职能，因为《华尔街日报》的民调显示，如果特朗普被定罪，将会损害他的政治地位。

“If you’re ever going to use the word ‘unprecedented’—this is the cycle,” said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in Governance Studies at Brookings and a member of the Democratic National Committee.

布鲁金斯学会“治理研究”项目的高级研究员、民主党全国委员会成员伊莱恩·卡马克（Elaine Kamarck）说：“如果你曾经想要使用‘前所未有’这个词来形容大选——那么在这个竞选周期再合适不过了。”（译者注：布鲁金斯学会（Brookings Institution）是全美乃至全球最有影响力的智库之一，成立于1916年。它致力于提供高质量、独立和切实可行的政策建议，这些政策建议非常有分量，会被美国当局认真考虑，也会在公共舆论中产生重要影响。）

Kamarck pointed to Trump’s unique baggage, noting that traditionally a candidate weighed down with so much controversy wouldn’t clear a presidential nomination process.

卡马克指出了特朗普独特的“包袱”，并指出从传统上来说，一个背负着如此多争议的候选人是不会通过总统提名程序的。（baggage 是一个比喻性表达，指的是特朗普身上的种种争议和问题。）

But how to run against someone who successfully operates so outside American norms? “I don’t quite know,” Kamarck said. “I don’t think the Biden campaign does either.”

但如何与一个成功打破美国常规行事的人相竞争呢？卡马克说：“我不太清楚，我认为拜登的竞选团队也同样茫然。”

In one break from tradition, Trump has spent more time lately cementing the loyalty of his supporters—and demonizing opponents even within his own party—than making the moves a candidate would normally make at this point to try to unify his party and draw in the voters who had backed other candidates in the primaries.

特朗普打破传统的一点是，他最近花了更多时间巩固支持者的忠诚度，甚至在党内妖魔化对手，而不是采取候选人通常在这个时候会采取的行动，即试图统一自己的党派，赢得在初选中支持其他候选人的选民的背书。

He has warned donors to Haley that they will be banished from the party.

他警告给哈利提供资金支持的人，他们将被驱逐出党。

“We’re getting rid of the Romneys of the world,” he said this week, referring to retiring Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, a fellow Republican and former party standard-bearer.

他本周说：“我们正在清除全世界的罗姆尼们。”他指的是即将退休的犹他州参议员米特·罗姆尼（Mitt Romney），他是共和党同僚，也是前党旗手。（译者注：在这里，Romneys 是特朗普用来泛指他认为的党内反对派或不支持他的共和党成员。standard-bearer 比喻某人代表着他们所在的政党的价值观和立场。former party standard-bearer 则表明罗姆尼曾经是共和党的一位重要人物，他的价值观和立场代表了整个党派。 ）

Tim Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota and a onetime Republican presidential contender, said that given the contest is shaping up to be a “rerun campaign” between two well-known figures, it will be important to focus on dynamics that have changed since 2020.

明尼苏达州前州长、曾经的共和党总统竞选人的蒂姆·波伦蒂（Tim Pawlenty）说，鉴于这场竞选将成为两位知名人士之间的“重选”，关注2020年以来发生的动态变化将非常重要。

This year’s unusual contest comes amid a string of norm-busting presidential elections.

今年这场不寻常的竞选是在一连串打破常规的总统选举中进行的。

The election of 2020 was marked by the Covid-19 pandemic forcing the candidates to curtail their public appearances and leaving campaigns struggling to reach voters at a time of stay-at-home isolation.

2020年大选的特点是，新冠疫情迫使候选人减少了公开露面，使竞选活动在居家隔离的时期难以接触选民。

And four years before that, Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton were broadly disliked at about this point in 2016, when they were on the cusp of securing their parties’ nominations.

而在四年前的2016年，特朗普和民主党总统提名人希拉里·克林顿在即将获得各自党派提名时，也曾在这一时刻遭到广泛反感。

At the time, that marked a low point in recent American history for having two widely panned choices. But the intensity of distaste for the two expected nominees is even stronger today.

当时，出现了两个备受诟病的选择，这标志着美国近代史上的一个低点。但今天，人们对这两位预期会获得提名的候选人的厌恶程度甚至更加强烈。

While 41% of voters held a “very negative” view of Clinton and 44% of Trump, Journal/NBC News polling in May of that year found, “very unfavorable” views of Biden and Trump stand at about 50% today, Journal polling finds.

当年5月，《华尔街日报》/ NBC 新闻的民调显示，41%的选民对克林顿持“非常负面”的看法，而特朗普的这一比例为44%。如今，《华尔街日报》的民意调查发现，约50%的人对拜登和特朗普持有“非常不支持”的观点。

At the same time, Trump’s loyal base of support means a larger share of voters hold a favorable view of him, meaning that his image, overall, is stronger than in 2016.

与此同时，特朗普的忠实支持基础意味着有更大比例的选民对他持支持的态度，这意味着他的形象总体上比2016年有所改善。

Mike Bocian, a Democratic pollster who also works on Journal surveys, said that history is little guide on how to read 2024 poll numbers for clues to how the election will unfold.

参与《华尔街日报》调查工作的民主党民意调查员迈克·博西安（Mike Bocian）表示，如何通过解读2024年的民调数据找到大选进展的线索呢？关于这个问题，历史几乎没有什么指导意义。

“It’s like, throw it all out. We’ve never had two incumbents running against each other before and that’s basically what we have right now.”

他说：“可以这么说，把历史抛到脑后吧。我们以前从未有过两位‘现任’总统互相竞选的情况，而现在基本上就是这样。”